A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
