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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still