Escalating Rhetorical Battle Involving Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Raises Concerns of Conflict

Growing concerns are present regarding the chance of armed conflict between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive language has escalated in the last month.

Red Sea coastline
Ethiopia and The Eritrean government worked together in the armed struggle in Tigray but they have later become estranged.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has triggered a fierce verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have often been tense. Following a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a border war started in which numerous people lost their lives.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and hinted at the desire to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to brief comments on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking former lands.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that attempts to validate "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

However, in the country, government media has shown graduation ceremonies of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The leader of human resources department of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Previous Roots of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian rulers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the UK forces before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict occurred, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President the president. The two agreed to a declaration that the war was finished – a move that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous civil war in the northern region.

But relations have subsequently deteriorated again.

Jason Pacheco
Jason Pacheco

Elena is an astrophysicist and AI researcher who translates complex space data into captivating visual stories.