🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Made $436K on Bets on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, sparking debate about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the event. Market Movement in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the hours before Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the president had been seized. A single trader, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32.5K. It remains unclear. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Platform data shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the odds had increased to eleven percent by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the morning of Saturday, indicating a rapid movement in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other platform users also made large payouts from similar wagers. Political Attention Intensifies Elected officials are growing concerned. Proposed legislation put forward on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Insider trading is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."